Carville defends Trump collapse prediction despite 30-day timeline passing

Democratic strategist James Carville insisted Thursday that he was right when he predicted the Trump administration would collapse 30 days into President Donald Trump’s second term.

During an appearance on journalist Dan Abrams’ podcast, Carville doubled down on his prediction when Abrams suggested that he got it wrong.

“I think it’s collapsing now,” Carville told Abrams, who found it amusing. “30 days – 180 days, okay. It is collapsing right in front of you.”

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Abrams brought up the subject by playing a clip of Carville on his show in February, where he declared that the Trump administration was “collapsing” and would be falling apart within 30 days.

Abrams asked the strategist Thursday if he still stood by the prediction. 

Carville replied, saying he was “a pretty smart guy in February.”

He defended the months-old prediction, stating, “You look at what’s happening, and you look at the current stuff that’s coming in – the public has revulsions against this.”

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Democratic strategist James Carville predicted in February that the Trump administration would collapse within 30 days.  (PBS)

He pointed to Democratic candidates leading in upcoming elections, like the governor’s race in Virginia, saying that proves Trump’s demise is underway.

“Do you know how much we’re going to win by in Virginia?” he asked. “Do you have any idea?”

“No, I don’t,” Abrams responded. “It’s gonna be a lot,” Carville declared. “It’s not going to be close.”

A recent Virginia Commonwealth Poll from July has Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears at 37% and Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger at 49%. 

Still, Abrams wasn’t convinced. “But you said that you thought that this administration was in the midst of a collapse.”

“I think it is. Yes, I do,” Carville shot back.

“And you think you were right?” Abrams asked. 

Carville didn’t back down, stating, “Yes. I think there are — they’re somewhere about 37% or 40% approval. Their economic numbers are terrible, are just terrible. And I think we’re running away with every election we’ve had. We’re going to run away with Virginia. We’re going to win New Jersey. We’re starting to recruit every candidate that we want.”

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Abrams continued pushing, mentioning polling showing that Trump isn’t exactly in the midst of collapsing.

“I pulled up the recent approval polling from The New York Times and Real Clear Politics, and the aggregation puts Trump’s approval between 44 and 45.8, with 53 and 51.4 disapproval, as of August the 6th. That’s not a collapse. That’s basically a little bit above where he was.”

Carville dismissed the numbers, saying the polling for upcoming elections “in no way reflect that.” 

“I don’t want to get into saying this poll, that poll, this aggregate poll; but I look at like the UMass Amherst poll, I look at Gallup, I look at people like that. I see something completely different. I’m very, very, very confident that this administration is going to be widely rejected in the elections coming up; and they’re gonna be particularly widely rejected in the elections in 2026,” he said.

One of Carville’s more recent predictions didn’t go so well. In the weeks leading up to the 2024 presidential election, the political veteran was so convinced that Kamala Harris would win, he wrote a column for the New York Times titled, “Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win.”

Carville’s column slammed Trump as a “repeat electoral loser” and claimed “This time will be no different,” while heaping praise on the Democratic nominee. 

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Fox News’ Marc Tamasco contributed to this report.