Will gold prices fall this September?

While speculation about inflation and the broader interest rate climate remains high right now, there’s also elevated interest in the precious metal market. For those who have invested in gold, for example, or are considering a move, the price of the precious metal remains a major consideration. 

Gold prices, after all, have surpassed numerous price records from the start of 2024 and are now around 64% higher than they were at that point. Still, at $3,374.77 per ounce right now, the price of the yellow metal is down from a recent record high. But could it continue to fall further, or are investors better served by acting now, before they get priced out of the market entirely? 

With a new month on the horizon, then, an analysis of the gold price landscape for September can be helpful. Below, we’ll break down what to consider right now.

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Will gold prices fall this September?

Predicting the future price movement of any asset is inherently hard to do with precision and with an alternative asset like gold, which has its price driven by a number of factors, that movement can be even more difficult to predict. Not many experts could have foreseen the dramatic surge in gold prices over the past two years. That said, there is a good chance that gold prices will fall this September, opening up a new window of opportunity both for beginners and those existing investors looking to beef up their holdings.

If inflation declined in August (the next report to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics comes out on September 11), then the price of gold could decline. That’s thanks to an inverse relationship between inflation and gold. A lower inflation rate means less damage to the purchasing power of the dollar, thus reducing the need for alternative assets and portfolio diversifiers like gold. That, in turn, could cause the price to drop. Still, inflation has remained particularly sticky in recent months, so this assumption needs to be put into context.

That said, the chances of a rate cut courtesy of the Federal Reserve in September look increasingly likely. There’s currently more than an 87% chance the central bank will cut rates when it finishes its next meeting on August 17, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. And, if it does, gold prices may respond by rising, instead. This was seen as recently as last year, when the Fed cut rates three times in the final months of 2024, but gold prices continued to rise anyway. Lower interest rates typically result in increased demand for gold, causing the price to move upward. But “typically” isn’t guaranteed, either. In other words, historic norms in relation to gold prices may be different now than they were when gold was priced under $2,000 per ounce.

Against this backdrop, then, investors looking for a new hedge against inflation and existing ones looking for additional diversification should instead explore ways to get invested in the metal below cost. This can involve dollar-cost averaging (buying gold for the same price over time, regardless of how much gold that price actually gets you), fractional gold investments and more. There will be ways to get invested, even if the price fails to decline this September. It just may require more work than it would if the price declined organically.

Learn more about your current gold investing options here.

The bottom line

If inflation drops, then gold prices could drop this September. But if interest rate cuts are issued, then the price could rise again, perhaps even to a new record high. So there’s much to consider and evaluate. This all being said, over time, gold prices only move upward and declines, when they do come, are small and temporary. If you know you need the protection gold can provide, then, and can afford to get invested in a small, starting amount, it may be smartest to get started now, before any future price movements push you out of the market permanently.